For years, we’ve seen clips of Biden in various states of cognitive decline, with the pace of these clips notably accelerating in recent months. Likewise media, Dem operatives, and talking heads have insisted with increasing frequency that these clips are deceptive, that there’s nothing to see here, that Biden remains sharp behind closed doors.
It’s hard to overstate the amount of credibility that was destroyed tonight in a matter of minutes. The American people were lied to blatantly, knowingly and quite aggressively. I think everyone watching tonight felt sadness and pity, my heart was in my feet the entire time, but my primary takeaway was this: who is currently running the USA? The Weekend at Bernie’s operation has come to a screeching halt, and the next weeks and months will be some of the most fascinating in our lifetimes. Buckle up!
Matt & Brian are notably among those who were downplaying this and telling everybody not to trust their lying eyes. Republicans lie but in the goofy way where everyone knows it's not literally true when they hear it, but it's a way of capturing real vibes people feel and part of their language that doesn't actually damage trust because everyone can always see the ball. Liberals on the other hand in government, media, and yes public health routinely do this thing where they gaslight and talk down to everyone questioning "the narrative" and then put up this no apologies "aw shucks who coulda known? We all did the best with the information we had at the time" routine once they accidentally let every dayone see behind the curtain. Then all the talking heads (including Matt and Brian) show up and say "people don't trust our guy because of bad messaging/wrong priorities/the groups/pick whatever, but obviously if that was fixed they would trust us more because our guy has fewer Pinocchios in WashPo". In reality it's got nothing to do with that and more than inflation immigraation or anything people hate being made to look like idiots, and Dem operatives seem to have perfected the art of making the people who trust them look like fools.
I mean… I guess I can see what you’re saying, but it’s not as if they’re one of the MSNBC types like Jen Psaki or whomever. It’s not clear to me whether they have dramatically more information about Biden’s mental fitness (a touchy, closely guarded subject among his advisers) than the average engaged member of the news-reading public, and I *really* don’t think Matt is out here trying to pull the wool over people’s eyes about Biden’s age. (How the hell could you do that even if you wanted to, for one thing?) I really don’t think Brian is doing that either, but of the two of them, he has downplayed the issue more; it’s always seemed to me that that’s because he desperately wants Biden to win—kinda like the way I always come up with a way to be optimistic about my Atlanta Braves, even during periods when they’re just fucking things up constantly. Or even the way I and a lot of people I know tried really hard to look past all the gigantic red flags and get hopeful about Eric Adams when he came into office here in New York: we all knew about these things, but we all still really wanted him to succeed in getting police morale back up and getting the city back on its pre-Covid feet. Jury’s still out on all that, but he certainly could’ve done better than he has!
In other words, my sense of the Matts and Brians of the world—which is to say, Dem-aligned journalists, as opposed to straight up flaks and operatives—is more that they’ve been “wishcasting” than deliberately deceiving the listeners/readers. And even that feels a bit harsh, considering they have an episode from months ago just called “Joe Biden is Old”; that’s not the typical behavior of journalists who are trying to brush the issue under the rug, in my experience. But hey, maybe I’m exposing myself as hopelessly naïve here, engaging in the same wishful thinking I’m (sort of) ascribing to them. I hope not, but I guess ya never know.
I understand the instinct toward recriminations and so on, but I really don’t think Matt and Brian are the people who deserve the bulk of our fury about this.
I don't know. If you go back to the previous episode the first 5 min are them downplaying this narrative to an incredible degree. If it wasn't blatant partisan advocacy (which I have always basically accepted is the general bent of this podcast) it is absolutely hopelessly careless to think the signs of decline were some total Republican fabrication beyond a stutter and some arthritis. Even in this episode though they act as if Trump was really similarly but just more subtly incoherent, so maybe they really are true believers. Either way, idk Brian at all outside the pod so frankly idc what he says, but for someone who is supposed to be a perceptive pragmatist Matt at best for taken for a ride here by people who never were making particularly serious arguments. I guess for their own conscious it's better if they're fools than liars but politically and reputationally the difference seems pretty minor
Who was running the country back when Reagan was president? That guy was a complete idiot and towards the end of his reign, showing signs of Alzheimer's. The presidency is a branch of government. The degree of personal involvement varies by the individual president. Clinton was heavily involved in his administration. If you read between the lines of the Bob Woodward books, Bush II's presidency was run by his cabinet. (They would meet in advance, hash out their differences, and then present W. with their recommendations.)
Cool story. I would prefer the most powerful nation in the world not have a shadow govt. It was wrong then and it’s wrong now. Unfortunately the problem I’m referring to is specifically the disinfo psyop that was just attempted by the media, see here: https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1806556780979175820?s=46&t=cErSTiIg9mm5Fa5kFuuiDw
It's not a shadow government. It's the executive branch. Voters elect (the electors who elect) the head of that branch of government. That person -- the president -- then brings in all of the people who run the administration. The direct involvement of that person varies. Personally, I think that the Biden administration has been very effective.
Though I am really not trying to be combative. I understand and agree with your desire to have a capable, effective president. (To the extent that I support the presidency: I think the presidential system should be abolished, but that's an argument for another day.) But things being as they are, I think the actions and policies of the administration are what should be evaluated.
Biden did an awful job at the debate. I just want to make this clear.
Guys, Trump literally had the worst debate of all time in 2020 by being absolutely unhinged. He almost killed the president with covid. After handling Covid terribly for all of America to see. He then ended up in the hospital a week later. He almost won the election. STOP THE BEDWETTING.
I mean… you said it yourself in your second-to-last sentence: “He ALMOST won the election.” That’s not good enough. And frankly, if you’re comparing Biden to Trump at all, you’re already losing; it doesn’t help that the upshot of that comparison also cuts against the desired outcome. Maybe I’m wasting my time even replying here though, because if that debate wasn’t enough to convince you that Biden shouldn’t be running for re-election, I don’t know what would be. The guy really, really wasn’t with it last night.
Hmmm. That isn’t the point I’m making. To be clear, I think he did awful. I also would love to have “my” ideal candidate.
I’m making 3 points: (1) it has nothing to do with comparing Trump to Biden. It’s comparing Dems to republicans. Republicans rallied around Trump not shiv him. (2) the debate actually makes zero difference. This was a far worse debate than I thought it would be. I still believe, although I could be wrong, that in a week everyone will forget about it and move on just like they did after 2020 debates, j6th, 2 impeachments, documents case, felony charges in ny, rape charges, felony tax case, etc. nothing moves the numbers that much. I don’t believe this will either. (3) finally, there is only one other candidate: Kamala. Matt sees that this is the truth and is for Kamala over Biden which I respect but brian is playing this dumb game where he just picks his “favorite” candidates and they become the nominee. I respect Matt’s argument because he actually deals with reality. Brian is just wishcasting.
Yep so was Trump in 2020. Also, who is beating Trump in the polls that isn’t Biden? He polls better than everyone else. We either believe the polls or we don’t.
I don’t want to paper over how awful the debate was. It was bad. However, we have no control over what jb does. Also if jb doesn’t run it’s Kamala. Everything else is wishful thinking acting or a triple bank shot. Matt at least grapples with this and prefers Kamala over Biden. Brian does wishcasting.
I would be fine with jb dropping out but I think everyone else has less of a chance. And Kamala would be the nominee. I could be wrong but that is what the polls and delegates would likely do
I don't think a replacement candidate is magically likely to swoop in and beat Trump, but the reality is that he's clearly too old, and that four more months will make this problem a lot worse, not better.
No argument here but people who say his issue is that he is too old (true!!!) should be fine with Kamala. The problem is that age isn’t “just” the issue. Everyone has their own candidates that they think willl be better. I have mine too but it is likely Kamala. None of the others, even the ones I like, haven’t run nationally and are likely a worse candidate than Biden. Could be wrong
I think it is time to bring back mandatory retirement across the board. It might be higher than 65 (say 70?) But certainly lower than 80.
My Dad is a bit older than Biden. Dad has gotten to the point that he needs to move to a care home. He has also lost his driver's licence. Dad is in complete denial. He refuses to sell his car, and continues to drive. He won't let the homecare workers into his apartment, never mind move to a home. It's a complete mess. So...
Great convo. I didn’t think Brian was being petty at all. Having seen Biden speak plenty, I too got the sense that he has been consistently failed by his staff/inner circle. The weight of the world on his shoulders, high pressure situation, and too much information in his head (to paraphrase what Brian said).
I think Kamala has a very different kind of charisma problem, but I agree with Matt that having seen her speak more recently, she can be a great communicator.
For a successful campaign, the people on the ground have to be excited about the candidate. This adds to the already significant issue. It’s not even about a dearth of excitement now. The vibe is: this is embarrassing.
I'd like to isolate the question of "is Biden capable of being the President?" rather than "is Biden capable of winning the election?"
Based on what I saw tonight, the answer is "definitely not." The other clear-eyed view of the situation I could imagine is "it doesn't matter because his team and staff can competently run the office without his intimate involvement, we only need to get him across the election finish line."
The perspective that Biden somehow had a bad night and that it doesn't actually indicate incompetency is so bizarre to me. His performance on stage was so bad I really don't think there's any other explanation for what we saw other than accepting that the Republican hit jobs mostly were accurate and Biden genuinely is experiencing cognitive decline.
Things you don't like = hit pieces. Thus, the problem with the Dem establishment in general. They villify anyone who dares point out the truth. Remind you of anyone else?....
I’m not sure who the “Democratic establishment” is, it’s largely a chaotic mess of people with different agendas. Certainly neither Matt nor Brian are the Democratic establishment.
I think Brian's views tend to represent the unofficial view of the Democratic Party on a pretty regular basis. Of course there are always intra-party disagreements, but if there is a "median" he tends to be pretty close to it (obviously an opinion statement)
Brian if Biden drops out he has absolutely no power to put ANYONE on the top of the ticket. Come on man. You think political people are going to care about a one term president who isn’t popular with his base and retiring and he can just dictate who the nominee is? Come on. The moment he says he isn’t running his word means shit. He isn’t Obama. You think black women just say Biden said we need Gavin so we are with Gavin. You are wishcasting
Exhausting. Not him, YOU. There was a primary. No one stood up. It's been six months since then. NO ONE STOOD UP. You can put forward as many names as you like, but someone has to STAND UP. Right now it looks this man will stay President from beyond the grave, since no other Democrat appears to want the fucking job. Nice fucking party. I'd do it just so you all shut up forever, but I'm only thirty. I'll vreak the rules if people want me to, but I'd rather not.
Come on man he was an awful candidate that had a Republican running his campaign. No one knew who the hell he was. Politics isn’t bean balls. It’s a blood sport. If he couldn’t win 2% in a dem primary when Biden wasn’t on a ballot you think he is going to beat Trump. He couldn’t raise money.
I don't think he was an awful candidate. I think he was a moderate/centrist. The 2% is reflective of the railroading, rather than the other way around. The whole point is that no one better ran because behind closed doors they threaten anyone who even thinks about bucking the pre-ordained anointment process
Apologies. I don’t mean that he is an awful candidate in that sense. He is an awful candidate to challenge an incumbent president. A centrist can’t win against an incumbent especially against an incumbent that isn’t a far left incumbent. He was running as Biden but younger. That’s my ENTIRE point. You can’t win as a moderate in either party for president unless your jb.
Jb was able to do it because he was obama’s vp. He had massive name id. Running against him but younger wont work in a primary. You can’t be a guy who know one knows and run against an incumbent that has massive name id and just be younger. You have to run on an issue or issues that ignite the base to support you like what happen to bush 1. He got primaried by the far right.
I think you are giving the Democratic Party far too much credit. People didn’t run against Biden because (1) they likely wouldn’t win, (2) if Biden lost to Trump they would be blamed and (3) their political career would be over. This is just a fact of our politics.
No need to apologize. I can't disagree with much of that. What is & is-not possible are true, but also the root problem of how we got here. Both parties could wipe the floor with the other if they would just moderate on basic issues, and stop gaslighting voters as if we don't have eyes. Most people have been pretty clear they vote on "kitchen table" issues, and yet here we are swirling around culture war nonsense....
I wish I believed what you wrote. I’m an ex Republican who went independent in 2016 after Trump than 2020 to a democrat. I want what you said to be true about centrism but I have disabused myself of that hope. Everywhere in the world far left and far right parties are winning not centrists. Part of the problem is (1) centrism doesn’t mean much (people have different views on different topics, (2) most people think they are centrist (a lot of maga think they are centrist. Shit republicans have been saying we were the more popular party and yet we haven’t won the popular vote in 40 years), and (3) people don’t want to compromise.
Let’s forget for a second the debate last night. Biden’s problem has been with his base AND center right voters. The youth, the left and African Americans don’t think he is fighting enough for them AND center right think Biden is left wing nut. Hard to square that circle.
I'm not sure whether not calling out Biden's perceived degeneration into inadequacy as a candidate is analogous to all the spineless GOPpers who have fallen into line behind Trump to preserve their careers in Republican circles or not. My feeling is that being persuaded not to interrupt the captain of the Titanic's nap to tell him about the iceberg because of either the threat of a cabin downgrade or the promise of an upgrade is nearer the mark, but the effect is the same.
The problem is he _can't_ look dynamic & vigorous & light on his intellectual feet enough to get ahead of this even on his best day; all he had to do was look dynamic & vigorous etc _enough_ at the debate & he would have gotten away with looking & sounding older than he used to. Now he would have to say 'Psyche! Jetlag's a bitch, isn't it?' & then give a flawless dynamic performance in a forum that washes away the debate. If he cannot do that then he's cooked, & if the threat to democracy from Trump is existential then letting Joe Biden's ego tank the Republic to avoid rocking the Democrat's boat is tantamount to complicity in treason.
For us in the rest of the world, we have to prepare for the post American era....
Are there campaign finance issues at play here? If Biden drops out what happens to his donations? Does Kamala have greater access to that money since she's currently on the ticket?
I'll come out and say what I think is obvious but that Democrats don't want to hear.
It's a HORRIBLE idea to nominate a woman of color to replace Joe Biden, especially one who is still tainted by an association with his administration during the period of high inflation. It's not right, but too many Democrats want to have it both ways: the US is a deeply sexist, racist country, and yet there is zero cost to running candidates who non-white women. But there is a cost. I wish there weren't, but there is.
I really think that it's too late to make a difference. Ezra Klein was right the first time around. Biden should have stepped down back then. I'm thoroughly convinced that we are screwed. But if they are going to pick a replacement for Biden, they need to go with someone like Gavin Newsom.
Hmmm, I don’t disagree that it would make it harder to win. For sure. The problem is if jb drops out you are getting Kamala.
Dems probably won’t say it or even admit it but that’s why they nominated jb in the first place. They worried about nominating a woman after Hillary and worried about nominating a gay man or a Jewish man or a white man from a blue state. Jb solved all those problems by (1) being a center left dem, (2) the Vp under Obama and (3) an old white guy (this is an issue for some in his coalition but a positive for other parts of his coalition).
What we are seeing now is the result of everything before. Biden is running because he is likely the only dem that can (1) unite his coalition and (2) win more white people than any other candidate.
A lot of the teeth bashing that is going on is people’s projections. Most here, shoot most very partisan voters, have no idea what Josh s or big gretch or warnock or Gavin think about most things. They are projecting their hopes on those candidates. Those candidates also have never been tested nationally and haven’t had 24/7 oppo dumped on their heads. Only jb and Kamala have.
I understand people’s wants for jb to drop out. However they need to understand that if he does the nominee is Kamala. Everything else is wishcasting or a triple bank shot
Hard disagree. Biden was nominated despite being a white male, not because of it. He was considered the most electable b/c he was perceived as the most moderate of the “name brand” options and one of the few that wasn’t actively courting the activist left.
Part of me says we are saying the same thing with slight nuances.
First, no one on the stage in the dem primary had even close to name id of Biden. Most, including Kamala, weren’t even known. Shoot I have lived in cali forever and I barely knew were she stood on national issues. Shit, she was the right leaning dem in our state.
Where I think we agree to some extent is that he was the nominee “despite being white” is correct. What I mean is an old white guy want winning a dem primary if (1) he didn’t have massive name id and (2) obama’s vp. But another huge reason was that (1) the dem voters were scared of Trump and (2) after watching Hillary lose in the blue wall (states with HUGE white populations) they were going with an old white male to peel votes away from Trump.
Being moderate was part of it but I think it’s a small part of it. The dem primary voters wouldn’t reward the other moderates in the primary because of (1) identity (gay and female) and (2) name id.
Nominating a woman of color for VP is perfectly fine. It’s announcing ahead of time that you’re going to choose a woman of color that necessarily and agonizingly tokenizes her.
The fact that Kamala is a lousy candidate has nothing to do with the fact that she’s a woman of color, except insomuch as had she not been a woman of color, it would’ve been obvious even to those with 2020 DEI-brains that she was a terrible pick..
Polls are not reliable, they are wishy washy fiction. Inflation is always used as a political problem when in reality it is not easily tamed when the 1% top dawgs are mainly the cog stuck in the wheel. Furthermore, the 2017 tax gifts to the morbidly rich was not the current presidents doing. Regarding Social Security, migrant workers do most of the grunt work our citizens will not tackle. Non citizens that pay into social security is a boon for our country, not a drain. "Approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. with no legal authorization to work, yet an estimated 8 million do, both on and off the books. Since undocumented immigrants don’t have Social Security numbers and are not authorized to work legally in the U.S., they are not eligible for any Social Security benefits, whether they’ve paid into the system or not."
*Undocumented immigrants quietly pay billions into Social Security and receive no benefits.
For years, we’ve seen clips of Biden in various states of cognitive decline, with the pace of these clips notably accelerating in recent months. Likewise media, Dem operatives, and talking heads have insisted with increasing frequency that these clips are deceptive, that there’s nothing to see here, that Biden remains sharp behind closed doors.
It’s hard to overstate the amount of credibility that was destroyed tonight in a matter of minutes. The American people were lied to blatantly, knowingly and quite aggressively. I think everyone watching tonight felt sadness and pity, my heart was in my feet the entire time, but my primary takeaway was this: who is currently running the USA? The Weekend at Bernie’s operation has come to a screeching halt, and the next weeks and months will be some of the most fascinating in our lifetimes. Buckle up!
Matt & Brian are notably among those who were downplaying this and telling everybody not to trust their lying eyes. Republicans lie but in the goofy way where everyone knows it's not literally true when they hear it, but it's a way of capturing real vibes people feel and part of their language that doesn't actually damage trust because everyone can always see the ball. Liberals on the other hand in government, media, and yes public health routinely do this thing where they gaslight and talk down to everyone questioning "the narrative" and then put up this no apologies "aw shucks who coulda known? We all did the best with the information we had at the time" routine once they accidentally let every dayone see behind the curtain. Then all the talking heads (including Matt and Brian) show up and say "people don't trust our guy because of bad messaging/wrong priorities/the groups/pick whatever, but obviously if that was fixed they would trust us more because our guy has fewer Pinocchios in WashPo". In reality it's got nothing to do with that and more than inflation immigraation or anything people hate being made to look like idiots, and Dem operatives seem to have perfected the art of making the people who trust them look like fools.
I mean… I guess I can see what you’re saying, but it’s not as if they’re one of the MSNBC types like Jen Psaki or whomever. It’s not clear to me whether they have dramatically more information about Biden’s mental fitness (a touchy, closely guarded subject among his advisers) than the average engaged member of the news-reading public, and I *really* don’t think Matt is out here trying to pull the wool over people’s eyes about Biden’s age. (How the hell could you do that even if you wanted to, for one thing?) I really don’t think Brian is doing that either, but of the two of them, he has downplayed the issue more; it’s always seemed to me that that’s because he desperately wants Biden to win—kinda like the way I always come up with a way to be optimistic about my Atlanta Braves, even during periods when they’re just fucking things up constantly. Or even the way I and a lot of people I know tried really hard to look past all the gigantic red flags and get hopeful about Eric Adams when he came into office here in New York: we all knew about these things, but we all still really wanted him to succeed in getting police morale back up and getting the city back on its pre-Covid feet. Jury’s still out on all that, but he certainly could’ve done better than he has!
In other words, my sense of the Matts and Brians of the world—which is to say, Dem-aligned journalists, as opposed to straight up flaks and operatives—is more that they’ve been “wishcasting” than deliberately deceiving the listeners/readers. And even that feels a bit harsh, considering they have an episode from months ago just called “Joe Biden is Old”; that’s not the typical behavior of journalists who are trying to brush the issue under the rug, in my experience. But hey, maybe I’m exposing myself as hopelessly naïve here, engaging in the same wishful thinking I’m (sort of) ascribing to them. I hope not, but I guess ya never know.
I understand the instinct toward recriminations and so on, but I really don’t think Matt and Brian are the people who deserve the bulk of our fury about this.
I don't know. If you go back to the previous episode the first 5 min are them downplaying this narrative to an incredible degree. If it wasn't blatant partisan advocacy (which I have always basically accepted is the general bent of this podcast) it is absolutely hopelessly careless to think the signs of decline were some total Republican fabrication beyond a stutter and some arthritis. Even in this episode though they act as if Trump was really similarly but just more subtly incoherent, so maybe they really are true believers. Either way, idk Brian at all outside the pod so frankly idc what he says, but for someone who is supposed to be a perceptive pragmatist Matt at best for taken for a ride here by people who never were making particularly serious arguments. I guess for their own conscious it's better if they're fools than liars but politically and reputationally the difference seems pretty minor
Much more so Brian than Matt.
Absolutely but both have done more than their fair share
100% this
Who was running the country back when Reagan was president? That guy was a complete idiot and towards the end of his reign, showing signs of Alzheimer's. The presidency is a branch of government. The degree of personal involvement varies by the individual president. Clinton was heavily involved in his administration. If you read between the lines of the Bob Woodward books, Bush II's presidency was run by his cabinet. (They would meet in advance, hash out their differences, and then present W. with their recommendations.)
Cool story. I would prefer the most powerful nation in the world not have a shadow govt. It was wrong then and it’s wrong now. Unfortunately the problem I’m referring to is specifically the disinfo psyop that was just attempted by the media, see here: https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1806556780979175820?s=46&t=cErSTiIg9mm5Fa5kFuuiDw
It's not a shadow government. It's the executive branch. Voters elect (the electors who elect) the head of that branch of government. That person -- the president -- then brings in all of the people who run the administration. The direct involvement of that person varies. Personally, I think that the Biden administration has been very effective.
Though I am really not trying to be combative. I understand and agree with your desire to have a capable, effective president. (To the extent that I support the presidency: I think the presidential system should be abolished, but that's an argument for another day.) But things being as they are, I think the actions and policies of the administration are what should be evaluated.
Biden did an awful job at the debate. I just want to make this clear.
Guys, Trump literally had the worst debate of all time in 2020 by being absolutely unhinged. He almost killed the president with covid. After handling Covid terribly for all of America to see. He then ended up in the hospital a week later. He almost won the election. STOP THE BEDWETTING.
I mean… you said it yourself in your second-to-last sentence: “He ALMOST won the election.” That’s not good enough. And frankly, if you’re comparing Biden to Trump at all, you’re already losing; it doesn’t help that the upshot of that comparison also cuts against the desired outcome. Maybe I’m wasting my time even replying here though, because if that debate wasn’t enough to convince you that Biden shouldn’t be running for re-election, I don’t know what would be. The guy really, really wasn’t with it last night.
Hmmm. That isn’t the point I’m making. To be clear, I think he did awful. I also would love to have “my” ideal candidate.
I’m making 3 points: (1) it has nothing to do with comparing Trump to Biden. It’s comparing Dems to republicans. Republicans rallied around Trump not shiv him. (2) the debate actually makes zero difference. This was a far worse debate than I thought it would be. I still believe, although I could be wrong, that in a week everyone will forget about it and move on just like they did after 2020 debates, j6th, 2 impeachments, documents case, felony charges in ny, rape charges, felony tax case, etc. nothing moves the numbers that much. I don’t believe this will either. (3) finally, there is only one other candidate: Kamala. Matt sees that this is the truth and is for Kamala over Biden which I respect but brian is playing this dumb game where he just picks his “favorite” candidates and they become the nominee. I respect Matt’s argument because he actually deals with reality. Brian is just wishcasting.
I see this line of argument a lot. Here is the problem:
Biden is losing in the polls right now.
Yep so was Trump in 2020. Also, who is beating Trump in the polls that isn’t Biden? He polls better than everyone else. We either believe the polls or we don’t.
I don’t want to paper over how awful the debate was. It was bad. However, we have no control over what jb does. Also if jb doesn’t run it’s Kamala. Everything else is wishful thinking acting or a triple bank shot. Matt at least grapples with this and prefers Kamala over Biden. Brian does wishcasting.
I would be fine with jb dropping out but I think everyone else has less of a chance. And Kamala would be the nominee. I could be wrong but that is what the polls and delegates would likely do
I don't think a replacement candidate is magically likely to swoop in and beat Trump, but the reality is that he's clearly too old, and that four more months will make this problem a lot worse, not better.
No argument here but people who say his issue is that he is too old (true!!!) should be fine with Kamala. The problem is that age isn’t “just” the issue. Everyone has their own candidates that they think willl be better. I have mine too but it is likely Kamala. None of the others, even the ones I like, haven’t run nationally and are likely a worse candidate than Biden. Could be wrong
I think it is time to bring back mandatory retirement across the board. It might be higher than 65 (say 70?) But certainly lower than 80.
My Dad is a bit older than Biden. Dad has gotten to the point that he needs to move to a care home. He has also lost his driver's licence. Dad is in complete denial. He refuses to sell his car, and continues to drive. He won't let the homecare workers into his apartment, never mind move to a home. It's a complete mess. So...
Good luck getting Biden out of the White House!
Great convo. I didn’t think Brian was being petty at all. Having seen Biden speak plenty, I too got the sense that he has been consistently failed by his staff/inner circle. The weight of the world on his shoulders, high pressure situation, and too much information in his head (to paraphrase what Brian said).
I think Kamala has a very different kind of charisma problem, but I agree with Matt that having seen her speak more recently, she can be a great communicator.
For a successful campaign, the people on the ground have to be excited about the candidate. This adds to the already significant issue. It’s not even about a dearth of excitement now. The vibe is: this is embarrassing.
I'd like to isolate the question of "is Biden capable of being the President?" rather than "is Biden capable of winning the election?"
Based on what I saw tonight, the answer is "definitely not." The other clear-eyed view of the situation I could imagine is "it doesn't matter because his team and staff can competently run the office without his intimate involvement, we only need to get him across the election finish line."
The perspective that Biden somehow had a bad night and that it doesn't actually indicate incompetency is so bizarre to me. His performance on stage was so bad I really don't think there's any other explanation for what we saw other than accepting that the Republican hit jobs mostly were accurate and Biden genuinely is experiencing cognitive decline.
The fact that Brian still referred to the WSJ article about Biden’s mental decline as a “hit piece” is really something.
Things you don't like = hit pieces. Thus, the problem with the Dem establishment in general. They villify anyone who dares point out the truth. Remind you of anyone else?....
I’m not sure who the “Democratic establishment” is, it’s largely a chaotic mess of people with different agendas. Certainly neither Matt nor Brian are the Democratic establishment.
I think Brian's views tend to represent the unofficial view of the Democratic Party on a pretty regular basis. Of course there are always intra-party disagreements, but if there is a "median" he tends to be pretty close to it (obviously an opinion statement)
Isn't Brian much more critical of Democrats than Matt is?
Perhaps on strategy, but not issue positions
Brian if Biden drops out he has absolutely no power to put ANYONE on the top of the ticket. Come on man. You think political people are going to care about a one term president who isn’t popular with his base and retiring and he can just dictate who the nominee is? Come on. The moment he says he isn’t running his word means shit. He isn’t Obama. You think black women just say Biden said we need Gavin so we are with Gavin. You are wishcasting
Exhausting. Not him, YOU. There was a primary. No one stood up. It's been six months since then. NO ONE STOOD UP. You can put forward as many names as you like, but someone has to STAND UP. Right now it looks this man will stay President from beyond the grave, since no other Democrat appears to want the fucking job. Nice fucking party. I'd do it just so you all shut up forever, but I'm only thirty. I'll vreak the rules if people want me to, but I'd rather not.
Will we end up nominating Taylor Swift?
Dean Phillips, but rather than acknowledge the possibility of a better alternative, they railroaded even him out of contention
Come on man he was an awful candidate that had a Republican running his campaign. No one knew who the hell he was. Politics isn’t bean balls. It’s a blood sport. If he couldn’t win 2% in a dem primary when Biden wasn’t on a ballot you think he is going to beat Trump. He couldn’t raise money.
I don't think he was an awful candidate. I think he was a moderate/centrist. The 2% is reflective of the railroading, rather than the other way around. The whole point is that no one better ran because behind closed doors they threaten anyone who even thinks about bucking the pre-ordained anointment process
Apologies. I don’t mean that he is an awful candidate in that sense. He is an awful candidate to challenge an incumbent president. A centrist can’t win against an incumbent especially against an incumbent that isn’t a far left incumbent. He was running as Biden but younger. That’s my ENTIRE point. You can’t win as a moderate in either party for president unless your jb.
Jb was able to do it because he was obama’s vp. He had massive name id. Running against him but younger wont work in a primary. You can’t be a guy who know one knows and run against an incumbent that has massive name id and just be younger. You have to run on an issue or issues that ignite the base to support you like what happen to bush 1. He got primaried by the far right.
I think you are giving the Democratic Party far too much credit. People didn’t run against Biden because (1) they likely wouldn’t win, (2) if Biden lost to Trump they would be blamed and (3) their political career would be over. This is just a fact of our politics.
No need to apologize. I can't disagree with much of that. What is & is-not possible are true, but also the root problem of how we got here. Both parties could wipe the floor with the other if they would just moderate on basic issues, and stop gaslighting voters as if we don't have eyes. Most people have been pretty clear they vote on "kitchen table" issues, and yet here we are swirling around culture war nonsense....
I wish I believed what you wrote. I’m an ex Republican who went independent in 2016 after Trump than 2020 to a democrat. I want what you said to be true about centrism but I have disabused myself of that hope. Everywhere in the world far left and far right parties are winning not centrists. Part of the problem is (1) centrism doesn’t mean much (people have different views on different topics, (2) most people think they are centrist (a lot of maga think they are centrist. Shit republicans have been saying we were the more popular party and yet we haven’t won the popular vote in 40 years), and (3) people don’t want to compromise.
Let’s forget for a second the debate last night. Biden’s problem has been with his base AND center right voters. The youth, the left and African Americans don’t think he is fighting enough for them AND center right think Biden is left wing nut. Hard to square that circle.
I'm not sure whether not calling out Biden's perceived degeneration into inadequacy as a candidate is analogous to all the spineless GOPpers who have fallen into line behind Trump to preserve their careers in Republican circles or not. My feeling is that being persuaded not to interrupt the captain of the Titanic's nap to tell him about the iceberg because of either the threat of a cabin downgrade or the promise of an upgrade is nearer the mark, but the effect is the same.
The problem is he _can't_ look dynamic & vigorous & light on his intellectual feet enough to get ahead of this even on his best day; all he had to do was look dynamic & vigorous etc _enough_ at the debate & he would have gotten away with looking & sounding older than he used to. Now he would have to say 'Psyche! Jetlag's a bitch, isn't it?' & then give a flawless dynamic performance in a forum that washes away the debate. If he cannot do that then he's cooked, & if the threat to democracy from Trump is existential then letting Joe Biden's ego tank the Republic to avoid rocking the Democrat's boat is tantamount to complicity in treason.
For us in the rest of the world, we have to prepare for the post American era....
Are there campaign finance issues at play here? If Biden drops out what happens to his donations? Does Kamala have greater access to that money since she's currently on the ticket?
Dudes. He needs to drop out gracefully.
I'll come out and say what I think is obvious but that Democrats don't want to hear.
It's a HORRIBLE idea to nominate a woman of color to replace Joe Biden, especially one who is still tainted by an association with his administration during the period of high inflation. It's not right, but too many Democrats want to have it both ways: the US is a deeply sexist, racist country, and yet there is zero cost to running candidates who non-white women. But there is a cost. I wish there weren't, but there is.
I really think that it's too late to make a difference. Ezra Klein was right the first time around. Biden should have stepped down back then. I'm thoroughly convinced that we are screwed. But if they are going to pick a replacement for Biden, they need to go with someone like Gavin Newsom.
Hmmm, I don’t disagree that it would make it harder to win. For sure. The problem is if jb drops out you are getting Kamala.
Dems probably won’t say it or even admit it but that’s why they nominated jb in the first place. They worried about nominating a woman after Hillary and worried about nominating a gay man or a Jewish man or a white man from a blue state. Jb solved all those problems by (1) being a center left dem, (2) the Vp under Obama and (3) an old white guy (this is an issue for some in his coalition but a positive for other parts of his coalition).
What we are seeing now is the result of everything before. Biden is running because he is likely the only dem that can (1) unite his coalition and (2) win more white people than any other candidate.
A lot of the teeth bashing that is going on is people’s projections. Most here, shoot most very partisan voters, have no idea what Josh s or big gretch or warnock or Gavin think about most things. They are projecting their hopes on those candidates. Those candidates also have never been tested nationally and haven’t had 24/7 oppo dumped on their heads. Only jb and Kamala have.
I understand people’s wants for jb to drop out. However they need to understand that if he does the nominee is Kamala. Everything else is wishcasting or a triple bank shot
Hard disagree. Biden was nominated despite being a white male, not because of it. He was considered the most electable b/c he was perceived as the most moderate of the “name brand” options and one of the few that wasn’t actively courting the activist left.
Part of me says we are saying the same thing with slight nuances.
First, no one on the stage in the dem primary had even close to name id of Biden. Most, including Kamala, weren’t even known. Shoot I have lived in cali forever and I barely knew were she stood on national issues. Shit, she was the right leaning dem in our state.
Where I think we agree to some extent is that he was the nominee “despite being white” is correct. What I mean is an old white guy want winning a dem primary if (1) he didn’t have massive name id and (2) obama’s vp. But another huge reason was that (1) the dem voters were scared of Trump and (2) after watching Hillary lose in the blue wall (states with HUGE white populations) they were going with an old white male to peel votes away from Trump.
Being moderate was part of it but I think it’s a small part of it. The dem primary voters wouldn’t reward the other moderates in the primary because of (1) identity (gay and female) and (2) name id.
Just my thoughts though
Nominating a woman of color for VP is perfectly fine. It’s announcing ahead of time that you’re going to choose a woman of color that necessarily and agonizingly tokenizes her.
The fact that Kamala is a lousy candidate has nothing to do with the fact that she’s a woman of color, except insomuch as had she not been a woman of color, it would’ve been obvious even to those with 2020 DEI-brains that she was a terrible pick..
Debates are a 19h century anachronism. Meaningless.
I'd rather not have to convince millions of people of that in addition to convincing them our policies are better.
All I Learned From the Debate Was That Biden Is a Better Golfer Than Me https://tinyurl.com/mr2znnjd
Polls are not reliable, they are wishy washy fiction. Inflation is always used as a political problem when in reality it is not easily tamed when the 1% top dawgs are mainly the cog stuck in the wheel. Furthermore, the 2017 tax gifts to the morbidly rich was not the current presidents doing. Regarding Social Security, migrant workers do most of the grunt work our citizens will not tackle. Non citizens that pay into social security is a boon for our country, not a drain. "Approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. with no legal authorization to work, yet an estimated 8 million do, both on and off the books. Since undocumented immigrants don’t have Social Security numbers and are not authorized to work legally in the U.S., they are not eligible for any Social Security benefits, whether they’ve paid into the system or not."
*Undocumented immigrants quietly pay billions into Social Security and receive no benefits.
Nina Roberts
Jan 28, 2019 ~ MARKETPLACE Hosted by Kai Ryssdal
Are you mispronouncing the VP’s name on purpose?